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KMID : 0364820180540030254
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Korean Journal of Microbiology
2018 Volume.54 No. 3 p.254 ~ p.265
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Inferring transmission routes of avian influenza during the H5N8 outbreak of South Korea in 2014 using epidemiological and genetic data
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Choi Sang-Chul
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Abstract
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Avian influenza recently damaged the poultry industry, whichsuffered a huge economic loss reaching billions of U.S. dollarsin South Korea. Transmission routes of the pathogens wouldhelp plan to control and limit the spread of the devastatingbiological tragedy. Phylogenetic analyses of pathogen’s DNAsequences could sketch transmission trees relating hosts withdirected edges. The last decade has seen the methodologicaldevelopment of inferring transmission trees using epidemiologicalas well as genetic data. Here, I reanalyzed the DNA sequencedata that had originated in the highly pathogenic avian influenzaH5N8 outbreak of South Korea in 2014. The H5N8 virusesspread geographically contiguously from the origin of theoutbreak, Jeonbuk. The Jeonbuk origin viruses were known tospread to four provinces neighboring Jeonbuk. I estimated thetransmission tree of the host domestic and migratory wild birdsafter combining multiple runs of Markov chain Monte Carlousing a Bayesian method for inferring transmission trees. Theestimated transmission tree, albeit with a rather large uncertaintyin the directed edges, showed that the viruses spread fromJeonbuk through Chungnam to Gyeonggi. Domestic birds ofbreeder or broiler ducks were estimated to appear to be at theterminal nodes of the transmission tree. This observationconfirmed that migratory wild birds played an important role asone of the main infection mediators in the avian influenzaH5N8 outbreak of South Korea in 2014.
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KEYWORD
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genomic epidemiology, influenza virus, Markov chain Monte Carlo, transmission tree
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